A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
